A recent poll released by local firm Ipsos Apoyo shows a technical tie between left-wing nationalist Ollanta Humala and rightist Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori in the race for Peru’s presidency, daily El Comercio reported.
The national poll of 1,983 people taken from April 23-30 shows Humala with 39 percent support, compared to 38 percent for Fujimori. The poll has a margin of error of 2.2%.
Fourteen percent of the respondents said they will vote blank in the June 5 second round, while 9 percent said they have yet to decide who they will support.
The poll shows a tightening in the presidential race. A previous poll by Ipsos Apoyo, released April 24, showed Humala with 42 percent support versus 36 percent for Fujimori.
However, political analyst Agustín Figueroa voiced his skepticism of the polling results on RPP radio. “I’m not convinced,” he said. “The campaign has just begun [for the run-off] and they’re already in a tie?” He said that Ipsos Apoyo’s polls were usually commissioned by El Comercio but that now they were being paid for by Morgan Stanley investment bank and filtered to all the news media.
“My impression is that this is very convenient, very suspicious… I’m surprised this poll was filtered [this way] and the result surprises me.”
Fujimori’s support is being boosted in Lima, where she has opened up a 21 point lead on Humala. In the Peruvian capital, Fujimori has 49 percent support, compared to 28 percent for Humala.
However, Humala still enjoys a strong advantage outside Lima. The 48-year-old former soldier has 45 percent support in the rest of Peru, compared to 32 percent for Fujimori.
In northern Peru, Humala enjoys a four point lead over Fujimori with 40 percent support, which is similar to polls taken in central and eastern parts of the country. In the south, however, Humala has a 28 point lead over Fujimori with 52 percent support.
Fujimori’s support is strongest in socio-economic group A – the wealthiest – with 56 percent support, compared to 24 percent for Humala, who has strong support among lower class groups C, D and E.
In terms of gender, 44 percent of male and 31 percent of female respondents said they would vote for Humala, while 35 percent of males and 43 percent of females will support Fujimori.
Humala narrowly lost the 2006 campaign to incumbent Alan Garcia. He won the first round vote on April 10 with about 31 percent support. Fujimori, the daughter of imprisoned ex-President Alberto Fujimori, came in second with about 23 percent support.
The new president will be sworn into office on July 28.
