UN Regional Commission Increases 2012 Growth Forecast For Peru

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, a regional commission within the United Nations, raised its economic forecast for Peru on Thursday while maintaining its growth expectations for the region.

ECLAC, or CEPAL, increased its projection for economic growth in Peru to 5.7 percent in 2012, from a previous estimate of 5.0 percent. The new forecast is closer in line with expectations by Peru’s government, which sees the economy rising by 6 percent this year. In 2011, Peru’s GDP rose by 6.9%.

ECLAC’s forecast for growth in Peru is the third highest rate in the region, behind Panama at 8.0 percent and Haiti at 6.0 percent. Bolivia is seen expanding by 5.2 percent, Costa Rica and Venezuela both by 5.0 percent, Chile at 4.9 percent,Mexico at 4.0 percent, Argentina at 3.5 percent and Brazil at 2.7 percent.

Overall, ECLAC maintained its 2012 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean at 3.7 percent. In 2011, the region grew by 4.3 percent.

“This United Nations Commission predicts that the current European financial crisis, the slowdown in China and the positive but low-level growth in the United States will have differing impacts on this region’s countries, depending on the relative size of their export-destination markets and their export structure,” the UN organization said in a report.

It added that, “ECLAC predicts that the relative slowdown in world economic growth expected for 2012 will result in the region’s international trade growing more slowly than in 2011.”

“Exports will grow by 6.3% this year, while buoyant internal demand will fuel stronger growth (10.2%) for imports. As a result, the trade surplus will fall from 1.3% of GDP in 2011 to 0.7% in 2012,” ECLAC said.

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